Several former students asked questions about forecasting performance and I assume it has to do with my recent post about the performance of the forecast of North Dakota sales tax. As they well know and a quick investigation would make clear, there is no shortage of discussion of these issues. The student know this, it is one of the things I tell them is constantly updated in the field.
One great recent discussion of the issue comes from Dave Giles’ Blog, Econometrics Beat. His recent post on forecasting performance where the data is cointegrated is a great summary of the issue(s) and I suspect would be useful for those thinking of forecasting revenues in a state experiencing economic booms or busts. I wonder if anyone knows a state like that?
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